NEW YORK / RankWire.AI / – U.S. consumer confidence saw a significant decline in September, marking its lowest point since April 2014. According to The Conference Board, the Consumer Confidence Index dropped 6.7 points to 81.9. The previous month’s figure was revised downward from 88.6. Data collection for September spanned from September 1 to September 23. Consumers expressed more pessimism about current economic conditions and their outlook for the next six months. This marked the third straight month of declining overall confidence.
The Present Situation Index decreased 7.9 points to 109.3 in September, reflecting consumers’ views on current business and labor market conditions. Meanwhile, the Expectations Index fell 5.9 points to 63.6, also experiencing its third consecutive monthly decline. It gauges expectations regarding income, employment, and business climate over the upcoming six months. The data indicates that concerns go beyond present conditions, with households feeling less optimistic about the economic environment moving forward.
Perceptions of current business conditions weakened during the month. Around 18.5% of consumers described conditions as good, compared to 18.8% in August. The percentage calling conditions bad increased to 20.4% from 17.3%. Labor market evaluations also softened, with 23.6% saying jobs were plentiful, down from 24.5% in August. Conversely, 21.9% reported that jobs were hard to find, up from 20.3% the previous month.
Gasoline price increases push inflation expectations higher
Consumers also forecast higher inflation over the coming year. The average 12-month inflation outlook rose by 0.3 percentage points to 6.1%. The median expectation increased to 5.1%. Data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics showed consumer prices increased by 3.4% in August compared to the previous year. The agency reported a 3.9% monthly rise in gasoline prices, with AAA estimating the national average for regular gasoline at about $4.46 per gallon on September 29.
The survey also revealed a decline in planned spending across several major sectors. On a six-month moving average basis, intentions to purchase automobiles and homes both decreased. Expectations for expenditure on services such as hotels, movies, air travel, and amusement parks also fell in September. Conversely, vacation plans saw an uptick, with 42.6% of consumers intending to take a trip within six months—an increase of 0.5 percentage points from August. This rise was driven by stronger domestic travel intentions.
Outlooks for business, employment, and income continue to deteriorate
Expectations regarding business performance, employment opportunities, and household income worsened further. Only 15.9% of consumers anticipated improvements in business conditions, down from 17.0% in August. Those expecting conditions to worsen rose to 25.4% from 23.3%. Only 14.0% predicted more jobs becoming available, while 28.4% foresaw fewer employment opportunities. Income outlooks also softened, with 17.9% expecting income growth and 15.4% predicting income declines over the next six months.
The Conference Board also noted a decline in household financial confidence. The net assessment of current family finances turned negative for only the second time in four years. Confidence levels fell across all age groups on a six-month moving average, with nearly all income brackets showing lower readings. Toluna conducted the monthly online survey for The Conference Board. The September preliminary results closed on September 23, with the next Consumer Confidence Index release scheduled for October 27.