NEW YORK / RankWire.AI / – The U.S. stock bull market has entered its fifth year on Monday, marking the end of four consecutive years of gains. According to Truist analysis, the S&P 500 has increased roughly 119% since its bear-market low on October 12, 2022. That session closed at 3,577.03, its lowest finish since November 2020. By the end of last week, it had risen to 7,811.54, representing a 14.1% gain for 2026. The index also gained 1.2% over the past week.
This current cycle ranks as the 11th bull market since the 1950s in the historical record. It is also the seventh to endure for at least four years. Its 119% increase falls short of the average 184% gain observed across the bull markets analyzed. The 2009-to-2020 period surged by 401%, while the 1987-to-2000 advance reached 582%. These earlier phases remain among the most robust long-term gains in the comparison.
Historical data suggest that fifth-year performances tend to be generally positive, though outcomes vary between cycles. Out of the previous 10 bull markets, six extended beyond their four-year milestone. For those that reached a fifth year, the average return was 12%, with a median of 15%. Past analyses also indicate an average peak drawdown of around 14% during fifth years. These figures reflect previous market cycles and do not predict the current trajectory.
Corporate Earnings Support Market Progress
The strength of corporate earnings remains a key factor in the ongoing market rally. FactSet reports that third-quarter S&P 500 profits as of October 9 are 29.6% higher than the same period last year. This marks the third straight quarter with earnings growth exceeding 25%. At the end of September, the growth estimate stood at 29.2%. Of the 19 index companies that have reported results, 84% surpassed analyst consensus estimates, with their combined earnings beating expectations by 4.9%.
Expectations remain high for continued profit growth into 2026. Fourth-quarter earnings for the S&P 500 are projected to increase by 27.6% year-over-year, while full-year earnings are anticipated to grow by 32.4%. About 40% of the upward revisions to 2026 earnings estimates are driven by semiconductor and hardware firms. Additionally, Barclays research indicates these companies account for approximately 75% of revisions to 2027 estimates year-to-date, emphasizing the ongoing significance of technology-related businesses in earnings forecasts.
Rising Rates Coincide with Fifth Year of Growth
The rally progresses amid rising interest rates and elevated U.S. government bond yields. On September 16, the Federal Reserve increased its federal funds target range by 25 basis points to 3.75% to 4.00%. Officials noted that economic activity was expanding at a solid pace, even as inflation remained high. September projections indicated median economic growth for 2026 at 2.3%, with unemployment at 4.1%. The Fed’s upcoming policy meeting is scheduled for October 27-28.
Meanwhile, long-term Treasury yields remain elevated as the stock market advances into its fifth year. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield was 5.24% on October 9, with the 30-year yield at 5.60%. Despite these high yields, the S&P 500 rose 0.6% that session, closing at 7,811.54. The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 0.8%, and the Nasdaq Composite moved up by 0.6%. U.S. equities approach the fifth year of gains at near-record levels, supported by strong earnings growth and higher borrowing costs.